Kill Probability

Written by Maynard G Krebbs

Monday, 21 March 2011 09:32

The following charts show the probability that a target will be killed after a certain number of attacks. This is useful to know when you want to avoid being tracked by the Scent Trail zombie skill, which could lead an injured zombie (and his horde) to your safehouse.

Note that the number of attacks is the basis for these figures -- not the number of AP. Remember to take reloads into account when using these charts.

Figures given in percentages.
-- indicates no chance of killing.
<< indicates less than 0.05%.
>> indicates 99.95% or greater.

Contents

Firearms

Pistol

# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Pistol Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
10		--	--	--	0.3	--	--	--	1.3	--	--	--	10
11		--	--	--	1.4	--	--	--	6.1	--	--	--	11
12	<<		--	--	4.2	0.1	--	--	15.1	0.6	--	--	12
13	0.1			--	9.3	0.5	<<	--	27.8	3.0	0.4	--	13
14	0.2			--	16.7	1.7	0.3	--	42.3	8.4	2.1	--	14
15	0.4				26.1	4.2	1.1	<<	56.4	17.3	6.2	0.2	15
16	0.7	<<			36.6	8.5	2.8	0.1	68.8	28.9	13.4	1.0	16
17	1.3	0.1			47.4	14.7	6.0	0.4	78.7	42.0	23.5	3.3	17
18	2.1	0.1	<<		57.8	22.6	10.8	1.2	86.1	54.9	35.5	7.8	18
19	3.3	0.3	0.1		67.1	31.7	17.3	2.8	91.3	66.6	48.1	15.0	19
20	4.8	0.5	0.1		75.1	41.4	25.2	5.5	94.7	76.2	60.1	24.5	20
21	6.8	0.9	0.2		81.6	51.2	34.1	9.6	96.9	83.8	70.6	35.7	21
22	9.2	1.4	0.4		86.7	60.4	43.5	15.2	98.2	89.3	79.2	47.4	22
23	12.0	2.1	0.7	<<	90.6	68.7	52.8	22.0	99.0	93.2	85.8	58.6	23
24	15.3	3.1	1.2	0.1	93.5	75.8	61.5	29.9	99.5	95.8	90.6	68.7	24
25	18.9	4.4	1.7	0.2	95.6	81.7	69.4	38.4	99.7	97.5	94.0	77.1	25
26	23.0	6.0	2.6	0.3	97.1	86.5	76.2	47.1	99.8	98.5	96.2	83.8	26
27	27.2	8.0	3.6	0.5	98.1	90.2	81.9	55.6	99.9	99.1	97.7	88.9	27
28	31.8	10.3	4.9	0.8	98.8	93.0	86.5	63.6	>>	99.5	98.6	92.6	28
29	36.4	12.9	6.5	1.2	99.2	95.1	90.1	70.7		99.7	99.2	95.2	29
# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Pistol Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
30	41.1	15.9	8.4	1.7	99.5	96.7	92.9	76.9		99.9	99.5	97.0	30
31	45.8	19.2	10.7	2.4	99.7	97.7	94.9	82.2		99.9	99.7	98.1	31
32	50.5	22.8	13.3	3.3	99.8	98.5	96.5	86.5		>>	99.9	98.9	32
33	55.0	26.7	16.1	4.4	99.9	99.0	97.6	89.9			99.9	99.3	33
34	59.4	30.7	19.3	5.7	99.9	99.4	98.4	92.6			>>	99.6	34
35	63.5	34.8	22.7	7.3	>>	99.6	98.9	94.6				99.8	35
36	67.5	39.1	26.3	9.2		99.7	99.3	96.2				99.9	36
37	71.1	43.4	30.2	11.3		99.8	99.5	97.3				99.9	37
38	74.5	47.6	34.1	13.7		99.9	99.7	98.1				>>	38
39	77.6	51.8	38.2	16.4		99.9	99.8	98.7					39
40	80.4	55.9	42.3	19.3		>>	99.9	99.1					40
41	83.0	59.9	46.4	22.4			99.9	99.4					41
42	85.2	63.7	50.4	25.7			>>	99.6					42
43	87.3	67.3	54.4	29.2				99.8					43
44	89.1	70.6	58.3	32.8				99.8					44
45	90.7	73.8	62.0	36.5				99.9					45
46	92.1	76.7	65.5	40.3				99.9					46
47	93.3	79.4	68.9	44.1				>>					47
48	94.3	81.9	72.0	47.9									48
49	95.2	84.1	75.0	51.6									49
50	96.0	86.1	77.7	55.3									50
# of Shots	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Pistol Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)

Shotgun

# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Shotgun Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
5	0.2	--	--	--	5.0	--	--	--	11.6	--	--	--	5
6	1.1	0.1	--	--	16.4	2.8	--	--	31.9	7.5	--	--	6
7	2.9	0.4	<<	--	31.6	10.2	1.5	--	53.2	23.4	4.9	--	7
8	5.8	1.1	0.1	<<	47.7	22.0	6.3	0.8	70.6	42.8	16.9	3.2	8
9	9.9	2.5	0.4	<<	62.1	36.1	15.0	3.9	82.8	60.9	33.7	12.1	9
10	15.0	4.7	1.1	0.2	73.8	50.4	26.6	10.0	90.5	75.1	51.4	26.2	10
11	21.0	7.8	2.2	0.4	82.6	63.3	39.7	19.1	95.0	85.1	66.8	42.6	11
12	27.6	11.8	3.9	0.9	88.8	73.9	52.7	30.4	97.4	91.5	78.7	58.3	12
13	34.6	16.5	6.2	1.8	93.0	82.1	64.4	42.7	98.7	95.4	87.1	71.6	13
14	41.6	21.9	9.3	3.1	95.7	88.1	74.1	54.6	99.4	97.6	92.5	81.6	14
15	48.5	27.8	13.1	5.0	97.5	92.3	81.8	65.4	99.7	98.8	95.8	88.7	15
16	55.0	34.0	17.5	7.4	98.5	95.1	87.6	74.4	99.9	99.4	97.7	93.3	16
17	61.1	40.3	22.5	10.5	99.1	97.0	91.7	81.7	99.9	99.7	98.8	96.2	17
18	66.7	46.6	27.8	14.1	99.5	98.2	94.6	87.2	>>	99.9	99.4	97.9	18
19	71.8	52.6	33.4	18.2	99.7	98.9	96.6	91.3	>>	99.9	99.7	98.9	19
20	76.2	58.4	39.2	22.8	99.8	99.4	97.9	94.2	>>	>>	99.8	99.4	20
21	80.2	63.7	44.9	27.7	99.9	99.6	98.7	96.2	>>	>>	99.9	99.7	21
22	83.5	68.7	50.6	32.9	>>	99.8	99.2	97.6	>>	>>	>>	99.8	22
23	86.4	73.1	56.0	38.2	>>	99.9	99.5	98.5	>>	>>	>>	99.9	23
24	88.9	77.1	61.1	43.5	>>	99.9	99.7	99.0	>>	>>	>>	>>	24
25	91.0	80.7	65.9	48.8	>>	>>	99.8	99.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	25
26	92.7	83.7	70.3	54.0	>>	>>	99.9	99.6	>>	>>	>>	>>	26
27	94.1	86.4	74.4	58.9	>>	>>	99.9	99.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	27
# of Shots	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Shotgun Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)				# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
28	95.3	88.7	78.0	63.5	>>	>>	>>	99.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	28
29	96.2	90.7	81.2	67.9	>>	>>	>>	99.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	29
30	97.0	92.3	84.0	71.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	30
31	97.6	93.7	86.5	75.5	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	31
32	98.1	94.9	88.7	78.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	32
33	98.5	95.9	90.6	81.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	33
34	98.8	96.7	92.1	84.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	34
35	99.1	97.3	93.5	86.7	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	35
36	99.3	97.8	94.6	88.8	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	36
37	99.4	98.3	95.6	90.5	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	37
38	99.6	98.6	96.4	92.1	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	38
39	99.7	98.9	97.1	93.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	39
40	99.7	99.1	97.6	94.5	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	40
41	99.8	99.3	98.1	95.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	41
42	99.8	99.5	98.5	96.2	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	42
43	99.9	99.6	98.8	96.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	43
44	99.9	99.7	99.0	97.4	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	44
45	99.9	99.7	99.2	97.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	45
46	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.3	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	46
47	>>	99.8	99.5	98.6	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	47
48	>>	99.9	99.6	98.9	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	48
49	>>	99.9	99.7	99.1	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	49
50	>>	99.9	99.8	99.3	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	>>	50
# of Shots	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Shots
	w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak		w/o Flak		w/ Flak
	Basic Firearms (30% hit)				Shotgun Training (55% hit)				Adv. Training (65% hit)

Melee Weapons

Fire Axe

# of Attacks	Hand to Hand (25% hit)		Axe Proficiency (40% hit)		# of Attacks
# of Attacks	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Attacks
22	<<	<<	<<	<<	22
23	<<	<<	0.1	<<	23
24	<<	<<	0.2	<<	24
25	<<	<<	0.4	<<	25
26	<<	<<	0.8	<<	26
27	<<	<<	1.3	<<	27
28	<<	<<	2.2	0.1	28
29	<<	<<	3.3	0.2	29
30	<<	<<	4.8	0.3	30
31	<<	<<	6.8	0.5	31
32	0.1	<<	9.2	0.8	32
33	0.1	<<	12.1	1.3	33
34	0.1	<<	15.5	2.0	34
35	0.2	<<	19.3	3.0	35
36	0.3	<<	23.6	4.3	36
37	0.5	<<	28.2	5.9	37
38	0.6	<<	33.0	7.8	38
39	0.9	<<	38.1	10.2	39
40	1.2	0.1	43.2	13.0	40
41	1.5	0.1	48.3	16.1	41
42	2.0	0.1	53.3	19.7	42
43	2.5	0.2	58.2	23.6	43
44	3.2	0.3	62.9	27.7	44
45	3.9	0.3	67.3	32.1	45
46	4.8	0.5	71.4	36.7	46
47	5.9	0.6	75.1	41.4	47
48	7.0	0.8	78.6	46.1	48
49	8.4	1.1	81.6	50.8	49
50	9.8	1.4	84.4	55.4	50
# of Attacks	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Attacks
# of Attacks	Hand to Hand (25% hit)		Axe Proficiency (40% hit)		# of Attacks

Knife

# of Attacks	Hand to Hand (35% hit)		Knife Combat (50% hit)		# of Attacks
# of Attacks	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP	# of Attacks
31	<<	<<	<<	<<	31
32	<<	<<	0.1	<<	32
33	<<	<<	0.2	<<	33
34	<<	<<	0.5	<<	34
35	<<	<<	0.8	<<	35
36	<<	<<	1.4	<<	36
37	<<	<<	2.4	<<	37
38	<<	<<	3.6	<<	38
39	<<	<<	5.4	0.1	39
40	<<	<<	7.7	0.1	40
41	0.1	<<	10.6	0.2	41
42	0.1	<<	14.0	0.4	42
43	0.2	<<	18.0	0.7	43
44	0.3	<<	22.6	1.1	44
45	0.4	<<	27.6	1.8	45
46	0.6	<<	32.9	2.7	46
47	0.8	<<	38.5	3.9	47
48	1.1	<<	44.3	5.6	48
49	1.5	<<	50.0	7.6	49
50	2.1	<<	55.6	10.1	50
# of Attacks	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP	# of Attacks
# of Attacks	Hand to Hand (35% hit)		Knife Combat (50% hit)		# of Attacks

Zombie Attacks

The tables below do not take into account the Tangling Grasp zombie skill, which gives a 10% hit bonus for subsequent attacks after a successful Claw attack.

Claw

# of Attacks	Base (25% hit)				Vigour Mortis (35% hit)				Death Grip (50% hit)				# of Attacks
	w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh
	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP
19	--	--	<<	--	--	--	<<	--	--	--	<<	--	19
20	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	0.1	<<	20
21	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	0.4	<<	21
22	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	0.8	<<	22
23	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	1.7	<<	23
24	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	<<	<<	--	--	3.2	0.1	24
25	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.1	<<	<<	--	5.4	0.2	25
26	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.2	<<	<<	--	8.4	0.5	26
27	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.3	<<	<<	--	12.4	1.0	27
28	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.5	<<	<<	--	17.2	1.8	28
29	<<	--	<<	<<	<<	--	0.8	<<	<<	--	22.9	3.1	29
30	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	1.2	<<	<<	<<	29.2	4.9	30
31	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	<<	1.9	0.1	<<	<<	36.0	7.5	31
32	<<	<<	0.1	<<	<<	<<	2.7	0.1	0.1	<<	43.0	10.8	32
33	<<	<<	0.1	<<	<<	<<	3.8	0.2	0.2	<<	50.0	14.8	33
34	<<	<<	0.1	<<	<<	<<	5.1	0.4	0.5	<<	56.8	19.6	34
35	<<	<<	0.2	<<	<<	<<	6.8	0.6	0.8	<<	63.2	25.0	35
36	<<	<<	0.3	<<	<<	<<	8.8	0.9	1.4	<<	69.1	30.9	36
37	<<	<<	0.5	<<	<<	<<	11.2	1.4	2.4	<<	74.4	37.1	37
38	<<	<<	0.6	<<	<<	<<	13.9	1.9	3.6	<<	79.1	43.6	38
39	<<	<<	0.9	<<	<<	<<	16.9	2.7	5.4	0.1	83.2	50.0	39
40	<<	<<	1.2	0.1	<<	<<	20.2	3.6	7.7	0.1	86.6	56.3	40
41	<<	<<	1.5	0.1	0.1	<<	23.8	4.8	10.6	0.2	89.4	62.2	41
42	<<	<<	2.0	0.1	0.1	<<	27.7	6.2	14.0	0.4	91.8	67.8	42
43	<<	<<	2.5	0.2	0.2	<<	31.7	7.9	18.0	0.7	93.7	72.9	43
44	<<	<<	3.2	0.3	0.3	<<	35.9	9.9	22.6	1.1	95.2	77.4	44
45	<<	<<	3.9	0.3	0.4	<<	40.2	12.1	27.6	1.8	96.4	81.4	45
46	<<	<<	4.8	0.5	0.6	<<	44.5	14.7	32.9	2.7	97.3	84.9	46
47	<<	<<	5.9	0.6	0.8	<<	48.8	17.5	38.5	3.9	98	87.9	47
48	<<	<<	7.0	0.8	1.1	<<	53.0	20.6	44.3	5.6	98.5	90.3	48
49	<<	<<	8.4	1.1	1.5	<<	57.1	23.9	50.0	7.6	98.9	92.4	49
50	<<	<<	9.8	1.4	2.1	<<	61.1	27.4	55.6	10.1	99.2	94.1	50
# of Attacks	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	50HP	60HP	# of Attacks
	w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh		w/o Rend Flesh		w/ Rend Flesh
	Base (25% hit)				Vigour Mortis (35% hit)				Death Grip (50% hit)

Bite

# of Attacks	Vigour Mortis (20% hit)		Neck Lurch (30% hit)		# of Attacks
# of Attacks	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP	# of Attacks
18	<<	<<	<<	<<	18
19	<<	<<	0.1	<<	19
20	<<	<<	0.1	<<	20
21	<<	<<	0.2	<<	21
22	<<	<<	0.4	<<	22
23	<<	<<	0.7	0.1	23
24	<<	<<	1.2	0.1	24
25	<<	<<	1.7	0.2	25
26	0.1	<<	2.6	0.3	26
27	0.1	<<	3.6	0.5	27
28	0.1	<<	4.9	0.8	28
29	0.2	<<	6.5	1.2	29
30	0.3	<<	8.4	1.7	30
31	0.4	<<	10.7	2.4	31
32	0.6	0.1	13.3	3.3	32
33	0.8	0.1	16.1	4.4	33
34	1.1	0.1	19.3	5.7	34
35	1.4	0.2	22.7	7.3	35
36	1.8	0.2	26.3	9.2	36
37	2.3	0.3	30.2	11.3	37
38	2.9	0.5	34.1	13.7	38
39	3.5	0.6	38.2	16.4	39
40	4.3	0.8	42.3	19.3	40
41	5.2	1.0	46.4	22.4	41
42	6.2	1.3	50.4	25.7	42
43	7.3	1.6	54.4	29.2	43
44	8.6	2.0	58.3	32.8	44
45	9.9	2.5	62.0	36.5	45
46	11.4	3.0	65.5	40.3	46
47	13.1	3.7	68.9	44.1	47
48	14.8	4.4	72.0	47.9	48
49	16.6	5.2	75.0	51.6	49
50	18.6	6.1	77.7	55.3	50
# of Attacks	50 HP	60 HP	50 HP	60 HP	# of Attacks
# of Attacks	Vigour Mortis (20% hit)		Neck Lurch (30% hit)		# of Attacks